NOAA armed with latest and greatest for hurricane 2012

  • Published
  • By Nick Stubbs
  • Thunderbolt Editor
MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE, Fla. --  While most Tampa Bay residents are crossing their fingers and hoping hurricanes give us a miss this year, James McFadden, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's chief of programs, is "looking forward" to the 2012 storm season.

That's not to say he's hoping for plenty of hurricanes, just that he and the NOAA Aircraft Operations team at MacDill are excited to try out their new equipment - upgraded computer data systems and superior Doppler radar systems on WP-3D Orion and Gulfstream IV-SP hurricane monitoring aircraft.

"A lot of good things," McFadden said of the new equipment. "We're looking forward to our new capabilities."

Those new capabilities will pay off in a far greater degree of accuracy predicting storm tracks and strength, said McFadden. For 2012, the NOAA team expects to predict the path of hurricanes 20 percent better than last year. When it comes to projecting storm intensity, the new gear should provide 40 percent more accuracy.

"The accuracy of our forecasts will be going up significantly," McFadden said.

On the downside for 2012, NOAA will be operating with only one of its P-3 Orion hurricane hunter planes, as its second aircraft will be down all season for long-term maintenance. That won't affect the capabilities of the NOAA team, however, as an aggressive schedule of two flying missions a day - for up to seven consecutive missions - with two crews manning the other P-3 will be utilized. NOAA also has a much better equipped G-4 to help this season, along with several other support aircraft at the ready.

NOAA is anticipating an "average" storm season, said McFadden, who said the official NOAA predictions released last week call for 12 to 18 named storms, with two to five major storms. But even if the season should turn out more active than predicted, the NOAA team at MacDill is equipped and manned to handle it, said McFadden.

"Oh yeah; we're ready," he said, adding that the new radar systems installed on the P-3 and G-4 will give NOAA an edge through technology.

Knowing where a storm is heading and how strong it will be is the core NOAA mission once a storm develops, and with the new equipment providing better accuracy in both categories, the public will have better information than ever for the 2012 hurricane season, predicts McFadden.

That information can save lives and help emergency management officials make the right call when it comes to evacuations and planning.